Urgent turn of decade research needed so that Nobel Dr Yunus speech in India's parliament in december 2009 unites microeconomists everywhere
this is where the puzzle starts- if you can help start with me chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk   (associate citizens seach webs include http://yunusforum.net http://worldcitizen.tv http://yunusworld.com http://fazleabed.com  ) and I will try and introduce you to whomever can most use your link in this map

can we put a group on helping dr yunus with readings worth briwsing beforemaking his turn of decade speech in india parliament?

If every consumer in India and in China, totaling up to almost 3 billion, want to live like people in San Francisco, Stockholm or Singapore, can they afford to? Can nature afford it? If not, how do we alter lifestyles and consumption patterns so that the growth process is sustainable in a more globalized world?

I believe, a new generation of economists and social scientists have to once again write and draw on blank slates, like IG’s generation did. There are, I believe, no textbook solutions. There are no pet answers, no clever models. The rise of Asia, and of the developing world in general, presents us with new challenges – new intellectual challenges, new technological challenges, new organizational and political challenges

The Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, inaugurated a Conference of the London School of Economics Asia Forum in memory of Dr. I.G. Patel, here today. The following is the text of the Prime Minister’s address on the occasion:

“I am delighted to be here today to open a conference in memory of a very dear friend Dr. I.G. Patel. My wife and I have fond memories of a lifetime of friendship with “IG”, as we all knew him, and his charming wife Bibi.

I first met IG in 1954 before I went to Cambridge. He had just returned from the IMF and taken over as Deputy Economic Adviser to the Ministry of Finance. He gave me some sound advice for deriving the best possible benefit of my stay at Cambridge. This was the beginning of an association which lasted for over 50 years. When I returned home in 1957 after completing my studies at Cambridge, I was offered a job in the Ministry of Finance. However, I was under an obligation to return to my university in Punjab since I was in England on a scholarship given by that university and which required me to return home and teach at that university. So I could not join the government then. In 1962, when I was at Oxford, I.G. again invited me to join the Ministry of Finance. On this occasion too, I was unable to join the staff of the Ministry of Finance. It was more than a decade later that I finally did join the Government of India. As Economic Adviser to the then Ministry of Commerce, I had frequent interaction with I.G. Patel who was then Secretary, Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance. In 1972, I moved to the Ministry of Finance as Chief Economic Adviser. That position gave me an opportunity to work very closely with I.G. Later on when I was Secretary, Economic Affairs and I.G. returned to India, after a tenure with the UNDP, as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, I worked very closely with him in formulating India’s macro economic policies. Because of his profound wisdom, knowledge and experience, I.G. was the natural leader of economists working in the Government. I, for one, learnt a great deal from him. In many ways, he was for me a friend, philosopher and guide.

The 1950s and the Sixties were a unique period in our developmental history. There was great interaction between officials in government and scholars in the universities, both scholars from India and from abroad.

We had, I recall, several distinguished economists like Nicholas Kaldor, Joan Robinson, Milton Friedman, John Kenneth Galbraith, I.M.D. Little, W.B. Reddaway and Daniel Thorner who spent some time at our Planning Commission. There was always a two?way flow of talent between institutions like the Delhi School of Economics and the Indian Statistical Institute and the various ministries of our government.

This interaction enriched the quality of academic research, making it more policy-oriented, and also contributed, I believe, to creative thinking within government. It has become fashionable of late to deride everything that was done in the realm of economic policy in those days. There are critics both on the Left and the Right. However, to be fair and honest, one must recognize that the early years after India’s Independence were truly exciting times in India. Under the inspiring leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru, a new generation of our countrymen tried to write on a blank slate and create a new nation State. The Indian economists were active participants in the national debate to build a new India free from the fear of want and exploitation.

There was much experimentation, since there were no known methodologies available for the construction of a new post-colonial nation. The political and intellectual atmosphere was charged with intense debate and discussion. Bold visions of a brave new world were being created on paper. IG was one of the many idealistic young economists who chose to participate in that great adventure of nation building.

Under the leadership of men like Dr. V.K.R.V. Rao, Sir Chintamani Deshmukh, Prof. P.C. Mahalanobis and Prof. J.J. Anjaria, a new generation of brilliant economists that included K.N. Raj, I.G. Patel, Pitambar Pant, S.R. Sen, V.K. Ramaswami and many others joined government.

Economists, scientists, scholars from various disciplines, worked closely with civil servants and political leaders to chart a new course for the Indian economy. Men like IG, who preferred a career in government to a career in academia, provided that crucial link. It was both an intellectual link and a warm personal link. I confess I miss that environment today. I do hope we can somehow re-create it and facilitate greater lateral mobility, in and out of government, and a freer flow of ideas so that both policy and research are enriched through this process.

In paying tribute to IG, I must also pay tribute to the London School of Economics and Political Science. LSE has always had a strong India link. Some of LSE’s faculty, like Vera Anstey and Harold Laski, were extremely close to India and to Indians. Professor Laski had great many followers even among our political leaders at the time. Many of his students, like P.N. Haksar and our former President K.R. Narayanan, had distinguished careers in our government. Often their appointment to government service was based on a mere note of recommendation from Professor Laski to Jawaharlal Nehru!

Even before Independence, LSE contributed several distinguished economists to India, like Dr. J.J. Anjaria. In the early years after Independence there was a flood of them who returned home from LSE to participate in the great saga of national development. The most prominent of them was K.N. Raj, who was recruited by Jawaharlal Nehru to help draft the First Five Year Plan at the tender age, I believe, of 27!

What I have always appreciated about LSE is the emphasis on inter-disciplinary approaches in its academic programmes. LSE took a holistic view of social sciences and of development. Its faculty appreciated the links between economics, politics, sociology, anthropology and law in the development process. In more recent decades we see excessive specialization in social sciences, and economists fancy themselves to be social engineers and technocrats.

But we must never forget that economics began, after all, as political economy. Economic policy making has always involved political choices since it has political consequences. IG belonged to a generation that recognized this ground reality. He knew that the choices our economists were recommending for adoption by our country had to be marketed in the political marketplace of a functioning democracy. It was not enough that these choices were rational, or that their costs and benefits could be measured. It was not enough that the arguments were intellectually consistent or were mathematically tested. In a democracy such choices had to be also politically defendable and acceptable.

It was a tribute to the holistic education that IG received at Cambridge that he was not only a good Economic Advisor, a good Finance Secretary, a good Central Bank Governor but also a good administrator who excelled in his understanding of the political economy of development.

In the past century LSE has contributed a great deal to the economics of development, especially in Asia. I am, therefore, pleased that you have today an LSE Asia Forum. Just as LSE focused its intellectual resources on the development challenges facing the post-colonial developing world, it must now study in depth the growth dynamics in Asia and its implications for the world economy and polity at large.

The most important development, I believe, of the 21st century will be the rise of Asia. China has already trebled its share of world GDP over the past two decades and India has doubled it. Both these giant economies of Asia are bound to gain a considerable part of their share of world GDP that they had lost during the two centuries of European colonialism. While Japan will continue to be at the top in the foreseeable future, the newly industrializing economies of East and South East Asia will, I believe, grow even if not at rates we witnessed in the past two decades.

Taken together, the rise of these Asian economies will alter the balance of income distribution at the global level. This need not worry the West, since a dynamic Asia can power global growth and provide new opportunities for growth for Europe as well as for North America.

But, it is essential that the West should come to terms with the consequences of the rise of Asia. In the long run of history, nations rise and fall. This in itself is not a new phenomenon. Regrettably, though, the record of history is found wanting as far as the ability of nations to deal with such ebbs and flows of history is concerned.

One of the re-assuring aspects of the on-going growth process is that it is more orderly. Just as the world accommodated the rejuvenation of Europe in the post-War world, it must now accommodate the rise of new Asian economies in the years that lie ahead.

What this means is that we need global institutions and new global “rules of the game” that can facilitate the peaceful rise of new nations in Asia. It also means that existing global institutions and frameworks of cooperation must evolve and change to accommodate this new reality. This is as true for the reform and revitalization of the United Nations and the restructuring of the United Nations Security Council, as it is true for the management of multilateral trading system, or for the protection of global environment or for the security of world energy supplies.

Western academic institutions played a leading role in shaping intellectual thinking after the Second World War to facilitate peaceful post-war reconstruction and development of Europe and of Japan. Once again institutions like the LSE must ponder over how the world can now accommodate the growth aspirations of the developing world so that the rise of Asia is peaceful.

We often say that globalization is a reality that we must contend with. We also say that globalization offers opportunities as much as it poses challenges. That people and nations must learn to deal with both. But, there are still many unsettled questions pertaining to globalization. Even the discipline of economics has not addressed the phenomenon in a holistic manner. For example, while there is enormous, and quite longstanding literature on the benefits of free trade in goods and free flow of capital, the literature and policy on the free movement of people remains scanty and patchy.

There are questions pertaining to the globalization of lifestyles, and its consequences for consumption, and their impact on the world environment. Is growth sustainable if development in the developing world merely mirrors the experience of the developed? It is not just that Third World households may not be able to afford western consumption standards, our planet would not be able to do so.

If every consumer in India and in China, totaling up to almost 3 billion, want to live like people in San Francisco, Stockholm or Singapore, can they afford to? Can nature afford it? If not, how do we alter lifestyles and consumption patterns so that the growth process is sustainable in a more globalized world?

I believe, a new generation of economists and social scientists have to once again write and draw on blank slates, like IG’s generation did. There are, I believe, no textbook solutions. There are no pet answers, no clever models. The rise of Asia, and of the developing world in general, presents us with new challenges – new intellectual challenges, new technological challenges, new organizational and political challenges.

I hope your forum, and forums like yours, will be able to inspire younger scholars to address these questions and seek answers. For the need of the hour is to do so. I wish your conference all success.”

*******

Mathematically, it is always vital to ask of any economics model, whose motivations sponsor the compound futures to be generated by the prescribed rules. With the globalisation models of the speculator investment banks looking very sick indeed, we commend choosing the free markets of end poverty -hi-trust community integrating maps exemplifiied by those whose formative action learning experiences were grounded in India and Bangladesh. Please email info@worldcitizen.tv if you have nominations to add to this Microeconomics school
If Wall's Street Investment banks had listened to the curiosity of a 9 year old in january 2008, would they have committed their final exponential death-spirals?

First India explorers of Yunus10000 dialogue

  • Lucknow School 1 2
  • LSE India Observatory
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 The occasion of this video (2/25 in microeconomist maps of saving world by ending poverty and resolving other failed systems of macro's Big Brothers ) was 1000 New Yorkers celebrating the publication of the Muhammad Yunus book "Creating a world without poverty - social business, future of capitalism,". This book provides the simplest complete set of maps we know of for systemising organisations of deep communal integrity to win-win-win the exponentials of end poverty are purposefully.
Back in 1984, Europe's senior exponentials-mapping economist had forecast that as one generation became more globally networked than geographically separated, the sustainability of all our future generations would depend on a Nobel Laureate encouraging the world to search out 30000+ replicable community-rising solultions which as a whole mapped a sufficient catalogue to end poverty. Note that globalisation's integration of localities is an over-arching meta-system that can only compound one of 2 opposite outcomes: sustainability which requires groundedness in sustaining every community which we will call microeconomics, or the opposite outcome that will compound ever fewer productive jobs -less and less entrepreneurially fulfiled lifetimes.
 Remember the huge advantage of microeconomics is that any attempted innovation is tested small, alowed to fail fast, only successes are replicated openly and as broadly as interlocal needs for matching sultions are evident. The huge risk of global macroeconomics is that a standard is forged by a big interest group, spreadsheetuimg assumptions that are soon forgotten by almost veryone whose performance becomes dictated by the numbers as the official orthodoxy then hardens across global management co nsultants and professional advisory services. All devoid of context, and so incapable of meaningful compound risk detection across a knowledge-working organisation as Andersen accounting found out! The Spin of Macroeconomics soon becomes blinded to any testing that could permit an erroneous model to fail quickly and at low cost; thus the erroneous maths compound ever deeper in all trillion dollar industry sectors in which it is embedded. Back in 2000, it was reported out of Brookings econmics institute and Georgetown law school that the century-old standards of global tangible accountants were mathematically precisely wrong for modelling the compound multipliers of goodwill - refer Unseen Wealth Research Bookings. When an incoming adminstration from Texas were presented Spring 2001 with the conclusion that : left to govern alone this accounting monopoly (of a then Big 5) would compound ever more risks, they proverbially shot the messenger. History of this albeit young century now permits you to analyse what happened every quarter after spring 2001 to see whose truth the worldwide needed to navigate in all human maps of future consequences.
 It is the intent of IndiaBangla to identify as many networking invitations as possible to try out the "end poverty" economics. It can be argued that where microeconomics trust networks assemble around a practical market xchnage, they now demonstrate worldwide best practice of networking tools. In the case of microcreditsummit, we have the most successful human networking endeavour by any metrics we have seen to judge network maps. Microceditsummit began in 1997, around Dr Yunus' earlier book of banking for the poor extended the reach of microcredit from just over 11 million primarily Bangladeshi customers around 1997 to over 100 million customers within a decade. With Dr Yunus' new book he invites the world to identify the next 10 micro summit applications which are as communally purposeful to human sustainability as having credit to invest in your life's deepest income generating and community serving flow. Application areas such as health, education, clean water and energy, transparency of microgovernment, media that does good for people. For example in November 2008 Dr Yunus will be celebrated in at california's oscar for technology's human development as "internetworker for the poor".
And the responsibility pop group TheGreenChildren will have the theme song "You can Hear Me Now" of ending digital divides through shared moble telephones released by Universal records.  These are cases for microgovsummit and micromediasummit to network around respectively.
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.Open Reporting of Successes & Failures by InteCitizen networks connecting http://yunusforum.net/ 2008-2010 9Years 1 to 3 of future capitalism)

12 Bangla500 -aim by end 2010 to register 5000 knwoledge exporters of bangladesh sustainability knowhow - see also // pilot webs to Indiabangla namely BanglaUSA.com, AngloBangla.com - help us edit your own twin region web interface with bangla5000

11 Y10000 youth dialogue dvd schdeuled to start year round social action dilaogue with university freshers 08/09 (tyypically 20 cities worldwide - 500 youth clusters)

10 Y1000Forum - goal to communally publish 300 emerging socila actions or social businesses in one city and celebrate this first edition catalogue with 1000 people in a 2 hour meeting with Dr Yunus including 900 citizens responsible for the catalogue's contents and 100 businessmen iwshing to take corporate or industry responsibility networking to the micro level of pervasive mappng and usability. Target date spring 2009 

9 Y1000Bookclub

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1 Rumor's Possibility (matches with yunusforum celebrating humanity guideline - impossible becomes possible if right action, people, time, place) is currently focusing on who will help connect 10 microsumimits such as

  • microhealthsummit
  • *micromediasummit  | ref web2.0
  • *microprosummit
  • *microeducationsummit
  • * denotes triangularisation that Gandhi satygraha commended as necessary to transform peacefully beyind being ruled by an economically destructive system (eg British empire's chaining of India to poverty - a goal which in the 1860s caused the death of the founder of The Economist before his time of a disease that BRAC's oral rehydration now saves up to 20% of Bangladeshi infannbts who previously died before te age of 5. Grameen and BRAC as the world's 2 deepest benchmarks of grassroots sustaianbility investment networks developed the practice that sustainable rural communities require 3 most trusted agents: nurse, teacher and banker. 

    Good News on India-Bangla Service Economics Partnerships - world leading mobiles ...

    Lead News from Bangla-California Relationships  Multiplying Goodwill Flow Potential for India & Region

    InSTEDD executives visits Grameen Solutions

    THE TECH MUSEUM AWARDS HONORS MUHAMMAD YUNUS WITH 2008 JAMES C. MORGAN GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN AWARD

    Report from The Green Children Hospital.  (India's Aravind Eyecare franchise arrives in Bangladesh)

    Enter secondary content here

    CITATIONS

    Gandhi Peace Prize 2000 Citation : Grameen bank, Bangladesh

    There are few institutions that inspire faith in humanity even in the an environment of material greed, soulless careerism, exploitation and pursuit of naked power, institutions that live with the credo that “small is beautiful” even when the world is being besieged by the philosophy of the big. They are the institutions that live with a soul committed to fighting the inroads of global homogenization, seeking to provide succor to the deprived yet diligent common people and proving that unity can work miracles even in an age of growing individualism. The Gandhi Peace prize 2000 is being awarded to one such institution which has been helping the marginalized masses to reject charity and to master their own destiny instead. It has been helping them tap their innate capabilities of entrepreneurship, thereby bringing them hope confidence and cheer. Here is a fraternity of perseverance and service that promotes dignity and adherence to truth. Here is development which enabled millions of women from poor households to acquire a new meaning in life. Here is development with a human face which is not populist but people-centred and which promotes self-help and self-respect, values dear to Mahatma Gandhi.

    Professor Muhammad Yunus, economist at the University of Chittagong, probably did not know that he was launching a revolution when he started his action project and lent a small amount of money to a poor woman to help her build her own life. The success of this experiment gave birth to Grameen bank. This bank radically reversed conventional banking practices with their emphasis on collateral security, practices which has given rise to the witticism that the best way to get a loan in convince the banker that you don’t need one. Here is a new banking system in rural areas that is based on mutual trust, solidarity, participation, peer monitoring and accountability. Its operations indicate the faith of its founding father, Muhammad Yunus, that if financial resources are made available to the poor on terms and conditions that are appropriate and reasonable “these millions of small people with their millions of small pursuits can add up to create the biggest development wonder.” The success of grameen bank has won international acclaim and emulation. With its participatory approach, emphasis on women entrepreneurs, women’s empowerment and employment creation, the microcredit projects have come to be hailed as a very promising approach to poverty eradication.

    Mahatma Gandhi gave the world a talisman “Whenever you are in doubt or when the self becomes too0 much with you apply the following test Recall the face of the poorest and weakest man whom you have seen and ask if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him. Will he gain anything by it? Will it restore him to a control over his life and destiny? In other words will it lead to Swaraj for the hungry and spiritually starving millions? Then  you will find your doubts and your self melting away”

    Grameen bank, Bangladesh is an invitation par excellence, which passes the test with great elan

     

    Europe's Senior Economist Citation (and only journalist to be at founders meeting of European Union's original hope to be a peace brand)

     The Importance of Dr Yunus

    By Norman Macrae

    The Nobel Peace Prize for 2006 was controversially awarded,  in Oslo,  to a “ banker  for the poor”  in usually basket case Bangladesh.. Since the  microcredit  system  pioneered by   this Dr Muhammad Yunus really has lifted record millions of  Banngladeshi   women from the world’s direst poverty. During his February 2000 book launch in London of “Creating a world without poverty – social business, future of capitalism”  we invited 30 people to have lunch with him at the Royal Automobile Club, St James,  - and I thrill fully to his stated aim to “harness the powers of the free market to solve the problems of poverty”

    To  his fans’  delight  and astonishment , he is  achieving   exactly that.  In the past quarter of a century,  his Grameen bank has lent (without collateral or lawyers) billions of dollars to millions of poor women in the previously starving villages of Bangladesh., and  has got an extraordinary  99% repayment  back.  .His often- illiterate customers have started millions of  successful small businesses in   unimagined  fields like  mobile- telephone- ladies and  saleswomen of the world’s cheapest yoghurt. All the successes have been won by keeping  costs incredibly low.  A  banking operation that would cost Goldman Sachs  $100 in New York or London  would cost Grameen  in Bangladesh well under 100 US cents.

     This is a huge development in human history. Money can now be directly channelled into productive  use  by the world’s poorest billion people, solving problems statesmen won’t  yet believe.. .  Microcredit  would best  woo poor Afghans off growing heroin., which drug - barons buy from them at pence per gram,. then sell that gram in London for up to  £100 ( not a  distribution  system  with the needed cheapness and efficiency at   which microcredit excels). Yunus  would set Afghans, like Bangladeshi, more profitably selling yoghurt instead. Yunus’s winning ways with Islamic women  should work even better with unveiled  African mommas, whose fertile soil  plus free  farm trade with Europe can start a huge African farming revolution.

         Most  bizarrely. efficient because cheap lending to the poor has emerged to work its  miracles. , just as crashing because mega-costly banking to the rich threatens  to cause some sort of  initially inflationary  world  slump . Words  like “inflationary” and “slump”  will soon prove dottily  incompatible,  but the west is dotty in assuming  only manufacturing must move to cheaper lands.  Bigger threats or crashes or wise competitive changes face the three occupations our politicians  have deliberately made more expensive by cartelising or otherwise protecting, them  - our farms, our lawyers , and now our banks,  The rulers of oil-rich lands have  similarly made their oil crazily  too expensive ( see this article’s final paragraph  for the most probable results).  . That sets a staccato agenda for this article.   We  had better start by examining how microcredit  for the poor almost accidentally ,  without local politicians noticing  and thus trying to stop it, came about

                                                                                                                            

      START IN  A  STARVING   VILLAGE

    During Bangladeshi’s terrible  famine year of 1974, Dr Yunus ( who had won his doctorate in economics in an  American university)  was back in his 1940  birthplace of Chittagong,  as professor of economics at the university there. He took a field party of his students to one of the famine-threatened villages. His group analysed that all 42 of the village’s small businesses (such as tiny farm plots and  market stalls) were indeed going bust unless they could borrow a ridiculously tiny total $27 on reasonable terms.

     First thought was to give the $27 as charity. But Yunus lectured that a social business dollar,  which  had to be paid back after careful use in an income-generating  activity, was much more effective than a charity dollar, which might be used only once and frittered away.  The “careful use”, says Yunus, “means that the moment  you bring in a business model , you become concerned about the cost, the revenue, how to bring more efficiency, new technology., how to redesign, each year you review the whole thing.  Charity doesn’t bring that whole package.” Mercifully, with close overwatch by the students, all those first 42 loans were fully repaid, and lent back. After nine years of further experiments,  Yunus in 1983 founded his Grameen (which means Village) Bank. Its priority was to make loans that were desperately needed by the poor.  This is the reverse of  the usual banking priority , which  is first ( and in credit crunches only) to make the safest loans , those to the rich who can provide collateral,, .

    In the next 23 years, Grameen provided  $6 billion of loans to poor people with that astonishing 99% repayment rate. In 2006, it had  7 million borrowing customers, 97% of them women,   in 73.000 villages of Bangladesh. Microcredit had by then reached 80% of Bangladeshi’s poorest rural families . Over half of  Grameen’s  own borrowers had  successful small businesses, and had risen above the poverty line. The women predominated because they usually are the poorest people in rural Islam, and proved best in paying back.

    When a Grameen bank manager goes to a new village, he has entrepreneurially to search for poor but viable borrowers . He earns a star if he achieves 100% repayment of loans, and other stars if his customers are fulfilling most of  the 16 guarantees that all customers are asked to pledge, ranging from intensive vegetable growing, through sending all  their children  to school, to renouncing dowries. A branch with  no stars would be in danger of closing, so borrowers rally round with suggestions, such as which unreliable repayers to exclude.

    An early income generator was the profession of telephone ladies. They borrowed enough to buy a cheap mobile phone from a Grameen subsidiary. They  draw fees for  phoning to see if more profitable prices for crops  are available in a neighbouring village, and from anybody who wants to hire the phone to contact the outside world. This is a job that could only become important in a microcredit setting. The owner of a mobile phone in richer suburbia would not find many customers to hire her set. One special desire of Yunus was to improve the nutrition of poor children in Bangladesh, and he formed a social business with the largest  French food multinational. This Grameen-Danone test marketed to find what sorts of fortified yoghurt Bangladeshi children would like.  Although Danone at first wanted large plants with refrigerated systems, Grameen won the debate to make them small plants who bought local milk. It hired very cheap local distributors who knew where there were babies whose parents might buy  yoghurt at a few cents per bottle. To keep the price that low. Danone had  to agree not to pay any dividend from the sales of the yoghurt in Bangladesh, but its $1 million investment remains returnable and it has learnt a lot about sales of a new product in poor countries. A French water company is forming  a similar social business with Grameen to remove arsenic from Bangladesh’s rural water supply ; and President Sarkozy envisages a  course to train French experts in spreading  Yunus’s ideas at one of France’s grandes ecoles..Some American computer concerns ( including Bill Gates) may join to  find the best way to establish computer centres in remote villages. The telephone ladies will then face competition . but constant competition in new technology is one  name of this game, which is why it should also hurry forward genetic modification  of crops in Africa,.

    Slump ahead  -  Japanese style?

    If a Grameen branch consistently falls below 98%  repayments, it closes; if that first branch in 1974 had failed, it would have cost $27 ..In 2006 giant American banks grossly overlent on subprime mortgages, then sold these   loans on in securitised and even “derivatised” (ie, misleading)  packages to weaker banks, who have been trying desperately to hide the consequences from their shareholders ever since. The   bad debts consequently held  by financial institutions  worldwide   are estimated at  $200 billion by the most glib bankers, and at   nearly $1 trillion., by the more independent IMF .Eiither  overhang  is bigger  than  that at the start of 1929-33’s great depression.

            There is still a small risk of a 1929-33 in 2008-12, so read on for two more paragraphs of bad news. Most reputable historians of 1929-33 have concluded that the  wisest  advice given in 1929 was that by the  Cambridge economist Maynard  Keynes, - namely, increase budget deficits before a slump strikes. That is not the view  of  current European finance ministers, Their first plea has been that all banks  should be honest about the extent of their bad debts, . Eh? If each bank’s  statement in early 2008 had been appallingly honest about its share of  bad debts, runs by depositors out of   them would quickly have accelerated  far beyond  anybody/s   control.

     But  2008’s aptest cautionary tale  is almost certainly  Japan in 1989.  In its miracle decades up to the  mid-1980s,  Japan had a relaxed system of banking to the poor, not unlike Yunus’s. The big companies like Nissan bought their ball bearings and other components very cheaply from tiny firms to whom Nissan’s own bankers lent  without  collateral or lawyers. Then Harvard  taught Japan its factories should buy components by computer just in time from bigger firms.. Japanese  banks switched to lending only to the rich, and ballooned real estate prices so  that by 1988  one golf course near Tokyo   had a greater nominal land value than the whole  US state of California. When this bubble burst, all Japanese banks had bad debts, which the government helped them to hide (very much as western central banks are now doing by letting banks turn their bad mortgages into safer gilts) .Japanese living standards stopped  rising  dynamically,   right until now. This is the sort of long stagnation-slump into which  western’ politicians are most likely leading us, and they will wrongly say it is an inevitable result of  China’s and  India’s  pinching  our jobs.